Among the most significant sectors of the European economy, retail and wholesale account for 5 million businesses, which contribute to nearly 10% of European GDP, and are affected by rising geopolitical tensions and disruptions to the global supply chain. Yet the evolving structure of global trade is now affecting the well-being of European consumers. To address this, the question is how efficiently companies can balance volatility and long-term strategy.

Over the past few years, global trade has faced several economic challenges, including the COVID-19 pandemic and political conflicts. This phenomenon explains how economic volatility became the new normal for businesses across regions. While retailers have historically demonstrated an ability to adapt during crises, current events have introduced economic constraints beyond short-term disruptions. 

Taking another perspective, technological breakthroughs and automation are creating new opportunities to enhance efficiency and competitiveness in the European market. The adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) will surely become a focal point, as its advancement is expected to generate a positive outlook for the region. Therefore, the fate of retail and wholesale businesses will depend on how effectively organisations adjust to the new environment. 

At ICISA Credit & Surety Week 2026, during the keynote “The State of Retail and Wholesale,” held on March 9, 2026, Richard Wulff, Executive Director of ICISA and Christel Delberghe, Director General of EuroCommerce, discussed how these challenges and opportunities are reshaping the European retail and wholesale space. 

Global instability and supply chain disruption

Geopolitical and trade tensions are undoubtedly shaping the global economy. “Uncertainty and volatility seem to be the new normal,” Delberghe said. As retail and wholesale operate under the global trade, the global conflict immediately affects this sector, and rising political tension has become a metronome in the new global business environment. 

Instability in global markets directly affects retail operations, with supply chain disruptions and higher transportation costs influencing everything from investment decisions to consumer prices. The present conflict in the Middle East is pushing up energy, fertiliser, and shipping costs, resulting in higher retail prices. 

These disruptions pose significant challenges due to the narrow profit margins that retailers already face, as an increase in operational costs will likely need to be passed on to consumers. This higher price will reshape customer behaviour and translate to lower demand. Consequently, retailers will be forced to maintain competitive pricing, which threatens international economic stability.

Despite the downside, Delberghe noted that the retail industry has historically proven resilience during economic recessions. For example, during COVID-19, the industry was able to keep essential products available to consumers, in some cases, thanks to e-commerce. Nonetheless, in this environment, resilience is no longer optional. Retail and wholesale industries are required to adapt and re-navigate their supply chain strategies constantly. 

AI in modern retail faces these challenges.

Artificial Intelligence is becoming one of the most prominent topics influencing business strategy today, with considerable potential in retail operations. “A huge potential… for your own efficiency, the management of your processes, and the management of the consumer relationship,” Delberghe explained. Particularly in the retail sector, automation is becoming a crucial tool to enhance productivity and navigate transformation within this critical environment.

As economic pressure grows and inflation rises, technological advancements in the retail and wholesale sectors have proven optimal for adapting to changes. These technologies optimise operations and improve decision-making in some spaces, such as demand forecasting and customer relationship management. And their capabilities are developing. “We’ve got technology developments… we’ve got lots of development,” Richard Wulff said. 

Artificial intelligence is being used in some areas, such as food waste management, where it enhances demand projections and resource management. This application expanded across Europe and has already contributed to positive results in waste reduction. 

Fundamentally, technological advances in this sector continue to put significant pressure on companies to adapt to the shift. The long-term goal is to maintain global competitiveness throughout this volatility. “Massive competition coming from outside Europe… from those platforms that are AI-based,” Delberghe said. More importantly, European markets require stakeholder support to remain competitive. Therefore, European companies must adopt and invest in AI to maintain strong competitiveness.

The scale of sustainability investment

Beyond the economic disruption, sustainability has become a challenge for the retail space. Wulff emphasises that recent global economic challenges have all been associated with global warming. At the same time, Delberghe noted that “no less than €300 billion had to be invested for sustainability between 2022 and 2030.” However, she also explained that the scale of investment required for these initiatives remains difficult in the face of economic setbacks.

In parallel, many sustainability rules have been implemented since the COVID-19 pandemic. Environmental policy has also become a strategic mechanism that drives economic growth. The rise in complex regulations will pressure companies to pivot their strategy to focus on long-term sustainability commitments while implementing new technologies.