Proxima and Oxford Economics launch global sourcing risk index - Trade Treasury Payments

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Proxima and Oxford Economics launch global sourcing risk index

Proxima, a global procurement consultancy, has launched its inaugural Global Sourcing Risk Index, developed in collaboration with Oxford Economics. The report provides a structured assessment of sourcing-related risks across 30 leading economies, collectively accounting for more than 85% of global GDP and 65% of international trade.

The Index ranks countries based on exposure across eight core dimensions, ranging from governance and geopolitical stability to climate resilience and cost volatility, across ten key sectors.

The analysis places Mexico, Turkey, and Russia at the top of the risk spectrum, primarily due to exposure to climate disruption, governance constraints, and geographic concentration. Conversely, most European economies are deemed lower-risk though they come with a significant cost premium.

The United States ranks 13th overall, placing it behind countries such as Brazil, Malaysia, and South Africa. Its profile is weighed down by escalating climate risks, labour cost pressure, and geopolitical headwinds.

Simon Geale, Executive Vice President at Proxima, said, “Every sourcing decision is a risk decision. In today’s volatile environment, business leaders must have a comprehensive view of global sourcing risk across every geography and sector they operate in. This report highlights those traditional assumptions – such as the safety of nearshoring or the relative stability of developed economies – no longer hold true in isolation. By understanding the full spectrum of risk, businesses can make better-informed decisions that safeguard resilience, sustainability and long-term performance.”

The report arrives at a time of heightened global trade tension, with supply chains disrupted by G7 policy shifts, US tariff actions, and conflict-driven instability in the Middle East. For firms reassessing exposure to China, the risk profiles of alternative sourcing markets (Mexico and India among them) are especially relevant.

Other highlights include:

Human rights exposure: Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Russia rank highest for labour and human rights concerns.

Tariff sensitivity: Singapore tops the tariff risk category due to its reliance on re-exporting trade flows.

Climate vulnerability: The Philippines is identified as the most climate-exposed, driven by cyclone activity and rising sea levels.

Sectoral risk: Energy, manufacturing, and food & beverage sectors face the greatest exposure due to their footprint in high-risk regions.

The full Global Sourcing Risk Index is now available for download on Proxima’s website.